Two opposing ideas exist simultaneously in my brain: online will destroy higher ed and online might just save higher ed.

Before Covid, many pundits described distance learning as the great disrupter of higher ed—something that would bring academic flexibility to a broader range of students at a better price. In 2000, only 8% of undergraduates enrolled in any type of online course. By 2018, over 30% of undergrads enrolled in some sort of online program and 16% enrolled online, full-time. 

Flexibility has certainly increased: a student can attend a class on a thousand different topics at any time of day for a price ranging from $0 to $2000+/credit. That said, it’s important to recall that student loan debt in the early 2000s was $49 Billion and, by 2020, student loan debt hovers the $1 trillion mark.

Once the pandemic hit universities in March, it was literally overnight that millions of college students moved into the 100% virtual experience and they now have...opinions. Which means the emerging question for colleges is: What will families pay for an online education now that they know online’s strengths and challenges first hand? While I think transparency is lacking, making an apples-to-apples comparison of online programs needlessly difficult, here’s a small sample of brick and mortar prices vs online only prices for a general business degree obtained from the respective college websites:

• If your student lives in a dorm at Purdue University, the total cost of attendance is $168K for four years. Purdue Global Online: $67K for four years.

• In a dorm at Harvard: $290K for 4 years. Harvard Extension: $59K for 4 years. 

• NAU online only costs $24K for a 4-year degree.  

Keep in mind, however, that regardless of the pathway to a college degree, the cost for boarding, living, and food will remain.

While no one can promise what the immediate future of higher ed looks like, academic deans and chancellors—or anyone on a college’s budget committee—are working 24/7 to plan for any and all contingencies. 

Here are three potential scenarios facing college students for Fall 2020: 

• 100% online only (eg. SDSU)

• 100% on-campus, traditional schedule (many colleges are promising and maybe even delivering)

• Hybrid/Flex: multiple Low density possibilities are being discussed: Limited on-campus presence/partially online (maybe freshmen only on-campus); block scheduling (á la Colorado College); no electives offered/core classes only; face-to-face intensives plus online (like some Master’s and Executive-style programs); iterative ‘waves’ of students on-campus; delayed or late-start of semester; classifying dorms as ‘family units’ which learn, stay, play together for class and residential life; classifying entire colleges as ‘family units’ that stay, play together

 Anyone who has ever been in a classroom, of any age group, knows first hand what a super-spreader event feels like. Example: one kid gets a runny nose and instantly the entire classroom is hacking and coughing.  Thus, it should remain known that for any of the Fall scenarios to be successful, solid testing, tracing, and quarantine plans are absolutely critical. 

Many families are considering a short deferral, or a longer delay to the start of their student’s college adventure (perhaps until a vaccine is available). Others are choosing to entirely opt out of the traditional brick-and-mortar college experience and are considering joining the 16% of students already enrolled in full-time, online options.  Many colleges are being intentional about upgrading/upscaling their online programs to better match employer needs within a robust academic framework. For example, studying poetry while learning Ruby-on-Rails is not only possible but imperative to expanding students’ critical thinking skills and bolstering a foundation of inclusive, historical knowledge. The families I speak with are excited about the savings offered by online programs because, as seen in the above examples, some are super affordable and available right now.

Final thoughts: We are in an incredibly difficult—hopefully innovative not just disruptive—transition. How many colleges will make it to the post-pandemic world? Some say 1/3 are destined to fail. College staff and students and families will need to dig deep and be flexible about, well, everything to do with the college adventure this Fall.

How are you going about your journey today?